PREDICTION OF BALTIC SECTORAL SHARE PRICE INDICES

Rimantas Rudzkis, Roma Valkavičienė, Virmantas Kvedaras

Abstract


Extending the research started in [31], the paper uses econometric methods for the short-term forecasting of quarterly values of sector indexes of stock prices from the OMX Baltic stock exchange. The ARMA models and modelling methodology that was used to build the statistical models in the previous paper are now augmented with the algorithms of time series aggregation and identification of special features of the series. Here, the search for informative factors relies on the study of related literature. The specification of models is further tailored using the traditional significance (p-value) analysis of regressors and a cross-validation analysis. The latter is implemented in this paper using the Jack-knife approach. The data period analysed covers the years 2000–2013. The results of the analysis indicate that the inclusion not only of recent autoregressive terms but also of some aggregated characteristics (as certain special features of indexes) improves the precision of forecasting substantially. The calculations were performed using the statistical analysis software SAS.

Keywords


sectoral indices of stock prices, OMX Baltic security market, data aggregation, autoregression analysis, forecast

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Lithuanian Journal of Statistics ISSN 1392-642X, eISSN 2029-7262
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